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Chances of generating a bitcoin address already in use

Astronomical Odds | The Reality of Duplicate Bitcoin Addresses

By

Omar Al-Mansoori

Jul 9, 2025, 11:40 AM

Edited By

Tomoko Sato

Updated

Jul 9, 2025, 02:02 PM

2 minutes estimated to read

A graphic showing multiple Bitcoin private keys being generated quickly, with some keys connecting to a network of existing addresses, representing the chance of duplicates.
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A lively debate continues as people question the likelihood of two individuals generating the same Bitcoin address. With millions creating keys at staggering rates, some ponder if it has already occurred, possibly unnoticed.

Bitcoin's private key generation boasts odds as low as 1 in 2¹⁢⁰, comparable to selecting a single atom from a vast universe. Yet, a growing number of users raises concerns: could accidental duplication of addresses happen?

Context and Significance

As Bitcoin usage expands, this topic resurfaces in forums as a source of intrigue. While the odds are extraordinarily low, commentators point to the sheer number of users and the tools employed for key generation as a potential trigger for overlap, even if rare.

Key Themes from the Discussion

Several noteworthy themes have emerged:

  1. Probability of Address Duplication: Many people argue that while theoretical duplication is possible, the practical occurrence remains unlikely.

  2. Real-world Implications: Commenters assert that any duplicate is likely to involve empty wallets, significantly lowering the associated risks.

  3. Key Generation Techniques: There's an emphasis on randomness in key generation, with some users mentioning that non-random address creation could lead to increased chances of duplication.

"If you generate non-random addresses, this can happen every day."

Another user noted how commonly used phrases in brain wallets can lead to address collision, showcasing a real-world example of how duplication might occur.

Commentary from Users

Overall sentiment among people leans towards skepticism about overlap. β€œPractically zero. Even if it happened, it’d probably be an empty wallet,” noted one participant. The idea that accidental duplication could happen due to non-random key generation is a concern for some. One user stated, β€œIt’s a number so big that you could drop like 16 zeroes from the middle of it and nobody would even notice.”

Curiously, some people express uncertainty, suggesting that strange overlaps could occasionally occur without detection.

Key Insights

  • ◼️ Odds of duplicate addresses remain astronomically low, still under 1 in 2¹⁢⁰.

  • ◻️ In real terms, any duplication would likely involve empty wallets.

  • β—‰ β€œIf you generate non-random addresses, this can happen every day.”

As Bitcoin matures, conversations around address duplication will likely gain traction. While experts maintain that significant overlap is improbable, the possibility of minimal duplicates looms, especially with tools speeding up address generation at an unprecedented rate. Should the trend of users continue, minor overlaps might surface down the line, but they would probably still involve wallets without funds.

Reflecting on Digital Evolution

This situation mirrors the early internet's chaotic domain registrations when many went unnoticed or unused, much like potential duplicate Bitcoin addresses today. The conversation is bound to evolve alongside the crypto atmosphere, highlighting both curiosity and caution in navigating this digital venture.