The Death of Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle | Shift to Global Liquidity
Edited By
Sofia Chen
Bitcoin enthusiasts are grappling with a fundamental shift in market dynamics as reports suggest the traditional four-year price cycle may be coming to an end. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, claims the focus has now moved away from halving events, instead zoning in on liquidity driven by global central banks.
Understanding the Shift
Historically, many believed Bitcoin's price movements were closely tied to mining reward halvings, occurring every four years. However, Hayes emphasizes that the real driver of Bitcoin's market behavior is now global liquidity, particularly actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China.
The recent cutting of U.S. interest rates in September 2025 marks a significant policy shift, with the Fed acting even as inflation remains elevated. Further, the Chinese government is loosening its monetary policies to combat deflation. Hayes noted, "Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise."
Key Observations from the Community
Feedback from various forums displays mixed sentiments on the evolving Bitcoin narrative. Here are some distinct themes:
Skepticism about the New Cycle: Many commenters express exhaustion with continual claims that this time will be different. One user quipped, "Every cycle is the last cycle, until it isn’t."
Caution with Predictions: There’s wariness about making hasty conclusions based on current trends. Commenters urged patience, suggesting, "How about we wait until after EOY to make such claims?"
Focus on Macro Factors: Some individuals are starting to accept that the broader economic landscape could overshadow historical cycles. One remarked, "The thing is, eventually this will be true; the 4-year cycle will be smaller than all other factors."
The Road Ahead
Despite the traditional halving cycle potentially losing its significance, it’s clear that Bitcoin's trajectory is more intertwined with macroeconomic policies. Market participants are encouraged to monitor central bank actions closely rather than fixate on predictable events.
"If Washington or Beijing suddenly tightened again, Bitcoin would correct hard, halving or not," Hayes cautioned.
Key Takeaway Highlights
🔄 The four-year cycle may be losing importance, shifting focus to liquidity.
⚖️ U.S. rate cuts and China easing are key factors influencing Bitcoin prices.
🧐 Analysts are calling for vigilance over policy changes as future price movements evolve.
As these dynamics unfold, the traditional narratives surrounding Bitcoin’s price will likely need a serious rethink. Will the changing financial landscape redefine what many have come to rely on in their investment strategies?
Probable Trends in the Bitcoin Market
Given the shift in focus from Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle to global liquidity, there's a strong chance that Bitcoin will continue to align more closely with monetary policy changes. If the Federal Reserve maintains its course of rate cuts, experts estimate a 60% probability that Bitcoin could see further gains as investors seek inflation hedges. Conversely, should central banks tighten policies unexpectedly, a significant correction is highly likely, with estimates suggesting a drop of 20% or more, reflecting market sensitivities. In this new macroeconomic landscape, Bitcoin's future value will depend greatly on the actions of policymakers and international economic conditions rather than past price cycles.
A Surprising Analogy from the Music World
An interesting parallel can be drawn between Bitcoin's evolving market dynamics and the transition of music from physical albums to streaming services. Much like how artists had to adapt to the new digital age, leading to both positive and negative impacts on revenue models, Bitcoin is experiencing a similar shift in its fundamental drivers. Back in the day, vinyl sales ruled, just as Bitcoin's halving cycles once did. However, when streaming platforms emerged, they reshaped the industry overnight, bringing in new dynamics and disrupting long-standing practices. As we witness Bitcoin change, could the currency's adaptation to the liquidity-driven market be akin to the music industry's embrace of streaming—ushering in a new era of accessibility and challenges?